Tag Archives | polls

Post-Mortem

Last week, I got knocked down by something that sure felt like the flu—or maybe it was just a really severe case of post-election depression. I don’t think that’s the case, though, because I was already pretty depressed before Election Day. At any rate, I’m sorry for not sending out much in the past week. […]

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The Polls Were Skewed!

The first observation I can make about tonight’s election results is that the polls were skewed, after all. Just not in the way Democrats were hoping. Across the country, Republicans are running way ahead of where they were supposed to be. Races that were supposed to be close are turning into blowouts. Mitch McConnell trounced […]

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Skewedenfreude

See if you find this argument familiar. Republicans hold the lead in key states, but this unanimous agreement among election forecasters conceals an Achilles heel: We all rely on the same poll data. What if that data is off?… Even in the week before the election, polls are not perfect….When errors occur, the outcome tends […]

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What Might Be and Ought to Be

Predictions for the Presidential and Senate Races With a few days left to the election, it’s time to offer my prediction. This is a somewhat unscientific projection. I don’t use reams of data and fancy computer models like Nate Silver, and that’s a good thing, because I think that pretends to a level of scientific […]

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